During the 2nd China-ASEAN Defense Exchange in Guangzhou on 24-26 June 2024 organized by the Chinese People’s Liberation Army’s Academy of Military Science and Jinan University, Him Raksmey, Executive Director of CCRS, was invited to speak the first parallel session on ASEAN Centrality and Regional Security among other defense officials and regional security experts. He thanked the Chinese hosts for the opportunity for CCRS to take part in this useful forum.
Here is a brief summary of his comments during the first parallel panel.
Regional Security
Numerous political scientists agree that the most significant aspect of today’s regional security environment is the power transition from the Western hemisphere, as the United States’ preponderant power declines, in relation to the phenomenal rise of China as a global power.
As China’s economic and military power continues to grow, the United States and its close regional allies have intensified their efforts to balance China by increasing and coordinating their military power and diplomatic efforts throughout the Indo-Pacific region.
With the Indo-Pacific Strategy, the United States seeks to compete with the PRC to defend the interests and vision for the future that Washing shares with others by strengthening the liberal international system, keep it grounded in the American shared values, and overcome the 21st-century challenges.
Beijing’s strategic priorities will inevitably challenge US economic and military might as China aspires to become a global power, changing the unipolar world towards a multipolar or bipolar structure in which it will be the other super power through strengthening of its power projection capacity in the region and by expanding its economic and military power globally in order to achieve its strategic objectives and protect its core interests. However, Beijing has repeatedly denial this ambition.
Regional security will likely be affected by the continuation of fierce competition between the United States and China. Both Washington and Beijing are likely to pursue their core national interests separately without compromising their strategic intentions to influence the region and beyond.
For Southeast Asia and ASEAN Centrality
The future prospect of ASEAN hinges on its correct assessment of the implications deriving from the U.S. and China rivalry affecting the regional bloc’s destiny.
ASEAN centrality needs to become bolder with more effective strategy that could engage both powers smartly but prudently by not circumventing one power against the other. In managing external relations with the two biggest powers, ASEAN should maintain its credibility as being neutral partner and masterful at balancing big powers competition to prevent ASEAN as a whole from taking side with one power or the other. As doing so is considered as ceding the initiative to manage ASEAN destiny to an outside power and will weaken ASEAN bargaining power with those powers in the protection of its own regional interest.
ASEAN centrality should be reinvigorated in an attempt to engage the US and China through existing frameworks, even if there are limitations in terms of what can be accomplished. Washington and Beijing are keen to court ASEAN and to pay some consideration to its wishes when framing their respective policies toward Southeast Asia. How much clout ASEAN has in this regard will depend on its ability to forge unity and centrality – hence there is a need to seriously push forward for a more effective existing frameworks such the ASEAN Regional Forum (ARF), the ADMM Plus processes, and the East Asia Summit (EAS).
Beside speaking during this important defense security exchange, the Executive Director has been able to raise profile of CCRS and interact intellectually as well as network among numerous prominent defense officials, regional scholars and security experts from ASEAN and China.
Him Raksmey’s full speech is available in this link: https://drive.google.com/file/d/1caaySvOaMAvSf-pznlYfKZLMwlYaPmtX/view?usp=sharing
